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An inflation gauge that is closely monitored by the Federal Reserve jumped 6.1% in January compared with a year ago, the latest evidence that Americans are enduring sharp price increases that will likely worsen after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The figure reported Friday by the Commerce Department was the largest year-over-year rise since 1982. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core inflation increased 5.2% in January from a year earlier.

Robust consumer spending has combined with widespread product and worker shortages to create the highest inflation in four decades — a heavy burden for U.S. households, especially lower-income families faced with elevated costs for food, fuel and rent.

At the same time, consumers as a whole largely shrugged off the higher prices last month and boosted their spending 2.1% from December to January, Friday’s report said, an encouraging sign for the economy and the job market. That was a sharp improvement from December, when spending fell. Americans across the income scale have been receiving pay raises and have amassed more savings than they had before the pandemic struck two years ago. That expanded pool of savings provides fuel for future spending.

Inflation, though, is expected to remain high and perhaps accelerate in the coming months, especially with Russia’s invasion likely disrupting oil and gas exports. The costs of other commodities that are produced in Ukraine, such as wheat and aluminum, have also increased.

President Joe Biden said Thursday that he would do “everything I can” to keep gas prices in check. Biden did not spell out details, though he mentioned the possibility of releasing more oil from the nation’s strategic reserves. He also warned that oil and gas companies “should not exploit this moment” by raising prices at the pump.

A separate report Friday showed that orders for long-lasting factory goods rose sharply in January, led by a rise in demand for airplanes. The figures indicate that many companies are willing to invest more in industrial equipment and other goods, a sign of confidence in the economy.

“Overall, the real economy appears to be in stronger health than we feared,” said Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics, a forecasting firm.

Russia’s invasion and the likely resulting rise in inflation have increased pressure on the Federal Reserve, which is expected to raise interest rates by a quarter-point as many as five or six times this year beginning in March. The Fed’s delicate task — to raise rates enough to restrain inflation, without going so far as to tip the economy into recession — has now become more difficult.

Fed officials are acknowledging that the invasion of Ukraine has complicated the economic outlook, but say that so far they are sticking with their plans for rate hikes.

Loretta Mester, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, said Thursday that she supported a series of rate hikes beginning in March. But she said the Fed should remain flexible: Faster rate hikes might be needed, she said, if inflation hasn’t begun to fade by mid-year, or more gradual increases if inflation is slowing.

“The implications of the unfolding situation in Ukraine for the medium-run economic outlook in the U.S. will also be a consideration,” she said. Other Fed officials have offered similar remarks this week.

Late Thursday, however, Fed governor Christopher Waller said he would support a half-point rate hike in March if inflation remains high.

Fed officials want inflation to fall back to its 2% target, as measured by the Commerce Department’s gauge, released Friday. A separate measure, the consumer price index, released two weeks ago, showed that inflation reached 7.5% in January from a year earlier, also a four-decade high.

In December, Fed officials projected that inflation would decline to just 2.7%, according to their preferred measure, by the end of this year, which most economists see as increasingly unlikely. The Fed will release updated projections at its March meeting.

January’s data show inflation was already picking up before the invasion. From December to January, prices rose 0.6%, up from 0.5% in the previous month.

There are early indications that consumer spending has stayed healthy, boosted by the rapid fading of the omicron wave of the coronavirus. JPMorgan Chase said that spending on its credit cards for airline tickets, hotel rooms, and restaurant meals rose in the first half of this month.

The JPMorgan Chase Institute also recently released data showing that cash balances remain elevated among their customers, including those with lower incomes. Bank account balances for Americans with less than $26,000 in income were 65% higher at the end of last year than they were two years before.

Americans’ paychecks are rising steadily. Average hourly earnings rose 5.7% in January compared with a year ago. Unless companies can offset their higher labor costs with greater efficiencies, most of them will likely charge their customers more. This would send inflation higher.

The combination of higher pay and enhanced savings suggests that Americans may be able to keep spending at a solid pace in the coming months, thereby sustaining the economy’s inflationary pressures.
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Nigeria’s real estate market has been expanding rapidly, but so has the number of people in need of housing in Africa’s most populous country. Nigeria’s Central Bank says the country has a growing deficit of at least 22 million homes.

Fashion designer Precious Nwajiaku moved to Abuja in late January in search of better opportunities. Without much money, she settled for a one-room apartment in a sandy village on the outskirts of Abuja.

She said she paid $300 for one year’s rent.

For that budget, Nwajiaku said, the house does not even have basic comforts such as water and electricity.

“You pay for water, there’s no water inside,” she said. “As you can see there’s no light, there’s nothing, there’s no good road.”

Nigeria’s real estate market grew by 3.85% in the second quarter of last year, its highest rate in six years.

Experts say cities such as Lagos and Abuja have the kind of buildings and architecture that are in high demand.

As demand for higher-priced real estate increases, though, access to affordable housing is more difficult for millions of citizens.

Nigeria’s housing disparity reflects the country’s huge economic divide.

The World Bank says 22 million people in Nigeria do not have the housing they need, the highest number in the world.

For years Nigerian authorities have been pledging to address the issue but without much result. In 2019, government officials pledged to supply 1 million affordable houses each year to help meet the demand.

Housing development advocate, Festus Adebayo said the housing programs are not keeping up with Nigeria’s population growth each year, though.

“If Nigeria is producing to the rate of 5 million every year, how many units of houses has the government or private sector produced in a year?” he said.

Adebayo runs an advocacy campaign for affordable houses and hosts an annual gathering and housing show in Abuja. The show aims to bring government and industry together to address the lack of affordable housing.

He said through the show, hundreds of citizens have been given suitable homes at affordable prices.

He warned that housing gaps will worsen by the time Nigeria’s population doubles to 400 million, as it is estimated to do by experts in 2050.

Property developer Banji Adeyemo cites several factors for the high cost of building homes.

“This is an era where foreign exchange has taken a new toll entirely and most of the construction materials have foreign input,” he said. “Governments needs to bring down the cost of land and it will reflect on the cost of production by developers for houses. Because other materials you don’t have control over them.”

Nigerian lawmakers this month began considering a bill that calls for rent to be paid monthly instead of once a year to ease the financial burden on tenants.

Experts say unless more houses are built, the gap will only widen, and millions will lack affordable shelter.
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